Collection: Krigsførelsens Kredsløb – The Cycle of Warfare

Practice-oriented Articles

Krigsførelsens Kredsløb – en fornuftig hypotesegenerator: En bro fra organiseret intuition til videnskabelig analyse

Authors:

Abstract

After a long and – from an analytical and philosophical perspective – relatively dormant existence as an analytical tool taught and used by Danish officers since the early 1960s, the Capability Cycle (the literal translation from Danish, “the Cycle, of Warfare” is somewhat misleading) has been thoroughly analyzed over the last couple of years. Theoreticians as well as practical users of the model have all demonstrated a number of ways in which the model is philosophically and methodically lacking as a proper scientific model. This article reflects the author’s thoughts on the criticism of the model as well as the suggestions to alter and expand it based on his own experiences with practical use of the model as a tool for real-world intelligence analysis through more than a decade. The critics are right to argue that the model is not a proper theory in the social science sense. However, this article finds that the model should remain unmodified with an inner circle representing the examined entity and an outer circle reflecting the society in which the entity originates. In its current format, the model is a simple, but effective tool for organizing the analyst’s available information. Furthermore, it is a means to help him or her focus the search for further information and to generate hypotheses that can then be tested with scientific methods.

Keywords:

Intelligence analysissocial sciencehypothesis generation
  • Year: 2020
  • Volume: 3 Issue: 1
  • Page/Article: 202–209
  • DOI: 10.31374/sjms.75
  • Submitted on 12 May 2020
  • Accepted on 3 Jul 2020
  • Published on 16 Nov 2020
  • Peer Reviewed